An approach to the 12th five year plan
GDP growth likely to average 8.2 percent over 11th plan. We have also see progress on inclusiveness, agriculture growth, poverty reduction, education, health, enlistment of SC/Sts, minorities. However progress on inclusiveness less than expected. We are likely to miss Millennium development goals (MDG) except perhaps on poverty.
Inflation has accelerated in last two years. Current international environment is very uncertain. Global pressure on food, oil and other commodity prices.
Financial conditions & exchange rates are likely to be volatile due to sovereign debt related problems in Europe / U.S. and readjustment of extra -ordinary monitory/ fiscal easing.
Twelfth plan objectives
Basic objective, faster, more inclusion and sustainable growth .
Is 10 % growth feasible ? Realistically even 9 percent will need strong policy action could aim at 9.0 to 9.5 percent.
Energy, water , and environment present major sect oral challenges. Can we address them without sacrificing growth ?
Can we find resources to create a world class infrastructure ?
For growth to be more inclusive we need better performance in agriculture
Faster creation of jobs, especially in manufacturing .
Stronger efforts at health, education , and skill development.
Improve effectiveness of program mes directly aimed poor.
Special program mes for socially vulnerable groups
Special plans for disadvantaged groups / backward region
Before the twelfth five year plan commences in 2012-2013, the planning commission will be releasing an approach paper which will present major targets and objectives of plan . The key challenges that could be faced in meeting these objectives and broad approach that must be followed to achieve objectives.
The approach paper would need to be approved by cabinet and national development council which includes all chief ministers of states and will provide the frame work for next plan with the details further fleshed out in the plan document.
On 21st April a meeting was convened by planning commission during which the centre piece of discussion was a document “ issues for approach to 12th plan “. Based on these deliberations the planning commission is working on the draft policy approach paper which is expected to be finalized soon.
A consultant with planning commission who is working closely on preparing approach paper based on the conversation here’s taking a look at what 12th five year plan could entail for India and energy and water out look and challenges to be touched upon in the plan.
The main theme of 12th plan is sustainable growth-faster more inclusive and sustainable growth .” said consultant . The theme of 11th five year plan was only faster and inclusive growth. The inclusion of word sustainable in the next plan seems to indicate as it is high on government’s radar given that environment and natural resources ( like energy and water) will represent serious challenges in the long run. In this plan we wanted to reach out and do more, hence including sustainable growth in the plan is completely novel concept said consultant.
The GDP target for 11th five year plan is 9 % due to drought and global recession it seems likely that GDP growth may only end up at 8.2%.
One of key issues identified seems to be the GDP target in up coming 12th five year plan. While target of 10% is being mentioned, the planning commission internal assessment indicates that due to number of constraints , achieving even a 9 % GDP growth would be difficult. Hence a target GDP growth range of 9-9.5% is being proposed.
Another objectives of 12th plan is try to and address energy, water and environmental challenges without scarifying the country’s growth plans.
Process of 12th plan formulation : some new strategies
The planning commission commenced a wide consultative process for seeking stake holder inputs for 12th plan engaging more than 9000 industrial associations, think tanks and civil society organizations.
With an aim of participating planning the power of internet and social media has been used by planning commission for the first time to collect feed back and suggestions from larger community and several hundred sectors experts. A dedicated website and face book were also launched and consultant shares that more than 32,000 citizens have visited these sites and provided useful comments.
But although social media is powerful and increasingly important medium of sharing ideas, it is essential to capture and use only the essential information. Various groups/ individuals have been pushing for their own cause as well, so we have to be specific in capturing issues that actually affects of country’s said financial consultant while talking about the use of social media in collecting citizen feed back.
Water is a key focus area for the plan
Water is one of the key challenges in India both in terms portable water and irrigation water availability. On top that the urban and industrial demand of water shooting up as well. Water is being taken very seriously in up coming plan- understanding the constraints and trade off. All state governments are taking to the planning commission and discussing their plans for next year in relation to water consumption and saving etc. said a consultant.
12th plan aims to put in place an integrated strategy to counter the water challenges with initiatives like
Remapping India s water balance basin-wise over next five years to prepare aquifer management plans.
Restructuring of “ Accelerated irrigation benefit program to incentive irrigation reform and efficiency of
Water use.
Prioritization of water shed management with better technical support.
Water recycling by urban areas and improved water quality in industrial areas.
Better legal and policy frame work around water issues.
Introduction of national water commission for monologue water regulations compliance.
Energy -coal stays a centre piece of plan
In order to sustain a GDP growth at 9 % the commercial energy demand would increasing at rate of 7%. These are a number of issues being faced by power sector like coal availability AT& C losses ( in case of coal) forest and environmental clearance issues.(LIKE HYDRO)
Every form of energy has a challenge. From energy stand point -though there are challenges associated with coal, it is not easy to say that we just want energy from renewable sources to continue to meet India’s needs of power . As far as next plan goes, the most prominent sources for power will be coal, not solar or nuclear “ said the consultant.
It seems that 2012-2018 almost 250 million tonnes of coal would need to be imported which requires a corresponding expansion of rail and port capacity. This also implies that environment and forest clearance of few private sector captive projects will be critical.
Planning commission suggests the continuation of nuclear power program with necessary safety review. While solar mission remains under funded and requires more support. There are also seems to be plan for long term cooking solution for rural areas like a better LPG network ( with cash subsidies instead of subsidized prices , off guide solar and bio-mass energy
The way ahead
The planning commission prepares to submit its approach paper based on the on going consultations, it is yet to see how energy and water challenges would be met in 12th plan. Here’s hoping that the sustainable growth angle of plan is taken more seriously and not compromised for a faster growth.
GDP growth likely to average 8.2 percent over 11th plan. We have also see progress on inclusiveness, agriculture growth, poverty reduction, education, health, enlistment of SC/Sts, minorities. However progress on inclusiveness less than expected. We are likely to miss Millennium development goals (MDG) except perhaps on poverty.
Inflation has accelerated in last two years. Current international environment is very uncertain. Global pressure on food, oil and other commodity prices.
Financial conditions & exchange rates are likely to be volatile due to sovereign debt related problems in Europe / U.S. and readjustment of extra -ordinary monitory/ fiscal easing.
Twelfth plan objectives
Basic objective, faster, more inclusion and sustainable growth .
Is 10 % growth feasible ? Realistically even 9 percent will need strong policy action could aim at 9.0 to 9.5 percent.
Energy, water , and environment present major sect oral challenges. Can we address them without sacrificing growth ?
Can we find resources to create a world class infrastructure ?
For growth to be more inclusive we need better performance in agriculture
Faster creation of jobs, especially in manufacturing .
Stronger efforts at health, education , and skill development.
Improve effectiveness of program mes directly aimed poor.
Special program mes for socially vulnerable groups
Special plans for disadvantaged groups / backward region
Before the twelfth five year plan commences in 2012-2013, the planning commission will be releasing an approach paper which will present major targets and objectives of plan . The key challenges that could be faced in meeting these objectives and broad approach that must be followed to achieve objectives.
The approach paper would need to be approved by cabinet and national development council which includes all chief ministers of states and will provide the frame work for next plan with the details further fleshed out in the plan document.
On 21st April a meeting was convened by planning commission during which the centre piece of discussion was a document “ issues for approach to 12th plan “. Based on these deliberations the planning commission is working on the draft policy approach paper which is expected to be finalized soon.
A consultant with planning commission who is working closely on preparing approach paper based on the conversation here’s taking a look at what 12th five year plan could entail for India and energy and water out look and challenges to be touched upon in the plan.
The main theme of 12th plan is sustainable growth-faster more inclusive and sustainable growth .” said consultant . The theme of 11th five year plan was only faster and inclusive growth. The inclusion of word sustainable in the next plan seems to indicate as it is high on government’s radar given that environment and natural resources ( like energy and water) will represent serious challenges in the long run. In this plan we wanted to reach out and do more, hence including sustainable growth in the plan is completely novel concept said consultant.
The GDP target for 11th five year plan is 9 % due to drought and global recession it seems likely that GDP growth may only end up at 8.2%.
One of key issues identified seems to be the GDP target in up coming 12th five year plan. While target of 10% is being mentioned, the planning commission internal assessment indicates that due to number of constraints , achieving even a 9 % GDP growth would be difficult. Hence a target GDP growth range of 9-9.5% is being proposed.
Another objectives of 12th plan is try to and address energy, water and environmental challenges without scarifying the country’s growth plans.
Process of 12th plan formulation : some new strategies
The planning commission commenced a wide consultative process for seeking stake holder inputs for 12th plan engaging more than 9000 industrial associations, think tanks and civil society organizations.
With an aim of participating planning the power of internet and social media has been used by planning commission for the first time to collect feed back and suggestions from larger community and several hundred sectors experts. A dedicated website and face book were also launched and consultant shares that more than 32,000 citizens have visited these sites and provided useful comments.
But although social media is powerful and increasingly important medium of sharing ideas, it is essential to capture and use only the essential information. Various groups/ individuals have been pushing for their own cause as well, so we have to be specific in capturing issues that actually affects of country’s said financial consultant while talking about the use of social media in collecting citizen feed back.
Water is a key focus area for the plan
Water is one of the key challenges in India both in terms portable water and irrigation water availability. On top that the urban and industrial demand of water shooting up as well. Water is being taken very seriously in up coming plan- understanding the constraints and trade off. All state governments are taking to the planning commission and discussing their plans for next year in relation to water consumption and saving etc. said a consultant.
12th plan aims to put in place an integrated strategy to counter the water challenges with initiatives like
Remapping India s water balance basin-wise over next five years to prepare aquifer management plans.
Restructuring of “ Accelerated irrigation benefit program to incentive irrigation reform and efficiency of
Water use.
Prioritization of water shed management with better technical support.
Water recycling by urban areas and improved water quality in industrial areas.
Better legal and policy frame work around water issues.
Introduction of national water commission for monologue water regulations compliance.
Energy -coal stays a centre piece of plan
In order to sustain a GDP growth at 9 % the commercial energy demand would increasing at rate of 7%. These are a number of issues being faced by power sector like coal availability AT& C losses ( in case of coal) forest and environmental clearance issues.(LIKE HYDRO)
Every form of energy has a challenge. From energy stand point -though there are challenges associated with coal, it is not easy to say that we just want energy from renewable sources to continue to meet India’s needs of power . As far as next plan goes, the most prominent sources for power will be coal, not solar or nuclear “ said the consultant.
It seems that 2012-2018 almost 250 million tonnes of coal would need to be imported which requires a corresponding expansion of rail and port capacity. This also implies that environment and forest clearance of few private sector captive projects will be critical.
Planning commission suggests the continuation of nuclear power program with necessary safety review. While solar mission remains under funded and requires more support. There are also seems to be plan for long term cooking solution for rural areas like a better LPG network ( with cash subsidies instead of subsidized prices , off guide solar and bio-mass energy
The way ahead
The planning commission prepares to submit its approach paper based on the on going consultations, it is yet to see how energy and water challenges would be met in 12th plan. Here’s hoping that the sustainable growth angle of plan is taken more seriously and not compromised for a faster growth.
